Macro Front and Fundamentals Resonated, Leading to a Surge in BC Copper Most-Traded Contract [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM March 12 News: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2504 futures contract opened higher and moved upward, starting at 69,830 yuan/mt. It closed with a bullish candlestick, operating above the daily average line, with the 5-day moving average crossing the candlestick body. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 04 contract opened higher with a gap and fluctuated rangebound amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, bottoming at 69,670 yuan/mt. During the morning trading session, the market stabilized above the 70,000 yuan/mt mark and rallied as shorts reduced positions. In the afternoon trading session, the most-traded BC copper 04 contract saw its center slightly rise further as longs increased positions, peaking at 70,870 yuan/mt and finally closing at 70,710 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt or 2.02%. The increase was mainly driven by short covering, with open interest at 7,346 lots, down 157 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reaching 9,158 lots, up 2,104 lots from the previous trading day.

Macro side, US tariff policies remained volatile, and the US-Canada trade dispute intensified last night. Today, the US officially imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate downward. Coupled with concerns over supply-side fundamentals, copper prices surged during the day.

SHFE copper 2504 contract closed at 79,410 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2504 contract price of 70,710 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 79,902 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2504 contract and the BC copper 2504 contract was -492 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and widening compared to the previous trading day.